The atmosphere around the Mid Atlantic is becoming primed and ready for stormy conditions over the next couple of days.
A stalled front reaches from New Jersey to low pressure in Iowa. Dewpoints south of the Front are in the 60s to around 70 (very humid). North of the front dewpoints are in the 50s.
The thin cloud deck over the Chesapeake Bay area at midday will allow heating and destabilization of the atmosphere during the afternoon. The boundary just to the north is a focus point and strong upper air winds will help energize any storms that develop or move into the area.
The right edge of the BWI forecast SKEW-T chart for Wednesday evening indicates that there will be some directional and wind speed shear. Other values on the chart are indicative of storm potential.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center places the highest chances for severe weather on Wednesday between the Ohio River Valley and the lower Great Lakes with a bullseye near Chicago. The Chesapeake Bay area is in the “Slight Risk” area.
By Thursday the focus moves east with the low pressure system and storms. The Chesapeake Bay area is right in the middle of the “Moderate Risk” target for severe storm potential. It will all depend on the timing of the approach of the cold front and the degree of the destabilization of the atmosphere.
Check out the forecast at anytime on the web at wbaltv.com/weather