Sandy Still Tracking North

There is not much change in the forecast of the upcoming storm.

Hurricane Sandy is expected to become a “post-tropical” storm as it approaches the Mid/Atlantic/Northeast Coast of the U.S. This is a technical reference and by no means that the storm will be any less dangerous.

Most models now agree that the storm will turn toward the coast somewhere between the DELMARVA Peninsula and New England with Delaware to New York  the favored targets.

 

The European model is the fastest with the storm center making landfall Monday evening near Ocean City. This would be a worst case scenario for Maryland with strong winds and heavy rains reaching farther west.

 

The GFS model is slower with the storm approaching Long Island Tuesday evening. The storm intensity might be a little less threatening for Maryland in this case but is still likely to cause some major disruptions.

 

The NCEP forecasters at College Park will be responsible for tracking the storm once it loses it’s tropical characteristics  and are splitting the difference between the European and GFS models by placing the storm off the New Jersey coast on Tuesday morning. This is close enough to Maryland and Virginia to cause major disruptions due to heavy rain and high winds. Coastal flooding is possible because of a prolonged east to northeast and ultimately northwest wind fetch during abnormally high tides associated with a full moon.

This is not the final word on the storm and much fine tuning needs to be done between now and Sunday. It is a pretty good bet though that windy, wet conditions will affect the area from the latter half of the weekend into early next week.

Check out the forecast at http://www.wbaltv.com/weather.

John Collins

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