Southern Storm Update

Wednesday Evening Surface Map...click to enlarge

The storm responsible for 1 to 2 feet of snow from the panhandle of Texas through Oklahoma to southwest Missouri and northern Arkansas, is still putting down moderate to heavy snow in parts of northern northern Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky.  The low pressure system has weakened over the past 24 hours and snowfall totals are expected to diminish as the storm heads for the North Carolina outer banks tonight, then moves off the coast Thursday.  In fact 24 hours ago, the storm was on the New Mexico/Texas border with a central pressure around 1000 millibars, tonight the storm in on the gulf coast east of New Orleans with a central pressure near 1012 millibars.

GFS Forecast for 1:00am Thursday...click to enlarge

GFS Forecast for 7:00am Thursday...click to enlarge

RPM Snowfall Forecast

A split in the jet stream continues this evening with the southern branch expected to dominate; carrying the storm east off the coast and not up the eastern seaboard.  Still, as the system passes south of the region overnight, a period of light snow or snow showers may dust the ground in parts of Maryland, especially south of Annapolis.  Our in-house RPM model is showing an inch or less in these favored areas.  Cold arctic air will pour into the region behind the storm, keeping temperatures below normal for a couple more days.  A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect for western Allegany and Garrett Counties.  After the arctic air slides east, a  modest warm up is expected over the weekend and into the middle of next week.

Tom Tasselmyer

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