Split Jet Keeps Southern Storm South

Water Vapor satellite image Tuesday evening...click to enlarge

Surface map Tuesday evening...click to enlarge

Upper Level Jet Stream forecast for 7am Wednesday...click to enlarge

Satellite imagery and surface data show a low pressure storm system developing over New Mexico and west Texas Tuesday evening.  The upper level jet stream, however, is split.  The northern branch of the jet is delivering a shot of arctic air to much of the eastern 2/3rds of the nation, while the low in west Texas is forecast to be carried along in the southern branch toward the gulf coast.

GFS Surface Forecast 7am Wednesday...click to enlarge

RPM Surface Forecast 11pm Wednesday...click to enlarge

RPM Snow Forecast by 4am Thursday...click to enlarge

With the split jet, the southern storm is expected to remain relatively weak and fast moving as it passes south of Maryland Wednesday night and early Thursday.  The low is forecast to become much stronger once it reaches a position where the two branches of the jet stream merge, or phase, which is after it passes well east of the mid Atlantic, out over the Atlantic Ocean Thursday night.

Still, there is a chance that some light snow will reach as far north as Maryland, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey with our in-house RPM model showing a dusting up to an inch possible by 4am or 5am Thursday.  Any change in the phasing of the jet and/or the track of the surface low could change the snow potential…stay tuned!

Tom Tasselmyer

 

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