Tuesday Storm Update

A new winter storm continues to develop and is moving into the Gulf of Mexico.

This storm is expected to cause all sorts of problems over the southern states with rain, snow and ice before it moves into the Mid Atlantic region on Tuesday.

The forecast map above shows the expected track. The clusters of colored markers around each “L” indicates low pressure centers forecast by various iterations of computer forecast models. The markers are in fairly tight clusters, indicating that the computer forecast ensembles are coming to closer agreement on the storm track. A second low pressure storm track is shown developing in the Ohio River Valley. The degree to which this second storm “phases with the coastal storm will determine the ultimate impact on the Mid Atlantic Region. At the moment the phasing appears to be forecast to occur in the mid to late stages of storm development and that would lead to lower snow accumulations. Caution must be used at this time though. The storm is still 36-48 hours away and fine tuning of the strength and track of both systemswill be necessary to develop a confident forecast on storm behavior.

The National Weather Service “Day 3” guidance on snow accumulations provides some clues as to where the heaviest snowfall might occur. It should also be noted that some warmer air might be pulled far enough north with this storm that areas of ice, sleet and rain could develop nearby as the storm moves in.

There are still a lot of unknowns regarding this developing storm so keep checking back on wbaltv.com and on TV-11.

John Collins

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