Storm May Drift Farther West!

Just as computer solutions seemed to settle on a more eastward track for the upcoming coastal storm, a switch to the idea of a more westward track is back in the picture.

The early Saturday afternoon NASA satellite image shows the developing storm center over the north-central Gulf coast. The newest storm track forecast takest the low center a little closer to the Mid Atlantic coast by late Sunday.

As we have been saying all week long, the closer to the coast this storm is, the greater the potential for a significant snow inland.

The National Weather Service forecast map for Sunday evening shows the storm position off, and relatively close to, the New Jersey coast line. At this point the heaviest snows would already have fallen over the Chesapeake Bay region.

How much?

Our in house computer model from WSI has boosted snow totals east of Frederick, MD and Washington, DC. Around Baltimore up to around six 8 inches is possible with more (8-10 inches close to a foot) in the northeast corner of Maryland. Parts of the Eastern Shore could receive more than a foot of snow based on this particular model. Other models and forecasts are a bit more conservative and I use these figures with a bit of caution because the ultimate track could modify these numbers significantly one way or the other.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter Storm Watch Warning for the eastern half portion of Maryland around the Bay and on the Eastern Shore because of the increased threat of a significant snowfall. Areas roughly west of the I-95 corridor are under a Winter Weather Advisory.

 

The Watch Warning will be in effect from Sunday morning through Monday morning and it is calling for 6-10 inches of snow in that time period.

Some fine tuning will still be necessary as the storm approaches so, stay tuned.

John Collins

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