Weekend Storm Threat Update

Friday morning water vapor satelllite image

Flat upper air pattern at roughly 30,000 feet above sea level

GFS, Euro, Canadian models keep upper air pattern relatively flat

GFS shows coastal storm too far off shore for snow in Baltimore

A look at the upper air pattern (300mb level, or roughly 30,000 feet above sea level) revealed by the Friday morning balloon launch shows the weekend storm dilemma.  Right now the upper air pattern is rather flat, that is, nearly west to east with only a slight kink in the flow associated with the trough of low pressure (our developing weekend storm), over the New Mexico/Texas border area.  In order for a storm to track “up” the eastern seaboard, the flow will have to buckle, producing more of a northeast steering current for any low that tries to come out of the gulf.  The morning model runs are not showing enough sharpening of the trough to send the storm up along the coast, instead they are indicating a pattern that would take low pressure in the gulf on a east/northeast track; “off” the coast instead of “up” the coast.  This means our storm threat is diminishing.  For snow lovers, however, there is one more thing to hope for.  The upper pattern did show a strong Pacific jet approaching the west coast.  If this jet can dig into the backside of the developing trough, we might see the trough sharpen up a bit more, perhaps sending the surface low up and closer to the coast.  It may be that the models will not completely “see” that jet until it moves over the west coast.  Stay tuned.

Tom Tasselmyer

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One Response

  1. if this one does miss us it looks pretty good for a snow event in the long term, specifically speaking of christmas. maybe a white christmas!!

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