Tropical Soaking On The Way

UPDATE … 2pm Wednesday …….Tropical Depression 16 has been upgraded to a marginal tropical storm (Nicole) with 40 mph winds circulating around an ill defined center between Cuba and Florida. The latest computer model analysis indicates that the storm may take a more easterly track than previously thought. This raises the level of uncertainty of the storm’s impact on the Mid Atlantic region over the next 24 to 48 hours. Check back for updates later today.

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Tropical Depression 16 continues it’s northward track. While the storm may reach marginal tropical storm strength, it appears the storm’s major impact will likely be excessive rainfall.

The overnight water vapor satellite image below from the Naval Research Laboratory shows wind circulation at the middle and high levels of the atmosphere.

Upper level winds circulating around low pressure areas over the Atlantic Ocean and the U.S. Mainland are channeling tropical moisture up the eastern seaboard. This same circulation pattern will draw the tropical depression up the coast as well.

The end result can be seen on the National Hurricane Center’s forecast track map for the storm. The storm is expected top be “post-tropical” in nature by the time it reaches the Mid Atlantic Region.

The map above shows what the situation will be Thursday morning.

The map below shows estimates for rainfall through Friday morning.

You can click on any of the maps and pictures to enlarge them.

The bottom line is that Thursday will be stormy with rainfall in the 2-4 inch range. Some flooding is likely. Winds will be gusty and may contribute to high tides on the Bay running as much as three feet above normal. Some severe thunderstorm activity is possible.

Keep checking wbaltv.com and all of WBAL-TV’s newscasts for updates.

Stay dry.

John Collins

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