Busy Hurricane Season Likely

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued its’ 2010 Hurricane Outlook for the Atlantic Basin. Forecasters indicate that the 2010 hurricane season is expected to be “active to extremely active”.

The Atlantic hurricane season begins June first and runs through November. The numbers shown in the graphic above carry a 70% probability of occurring and exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes in any given year. The reasons for the high expectations are:

  • High altitude winds are conducive to storm development. The Pacific El Nino conditions have dissipated and the resulting wind shear effects are diminished
  • Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are at record levels, running up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average
  • Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, favoring high activity

NOAA will update this outlook in early August, as the huricane season approaches its’ peak period of activity.

The graphic below lists the first twelve names selected for this year’s storms.

John Collins


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