Early Evening Storm Update

The National Weather Service has expanded the Blizzard Warning which now includes the District of Columbia, Prince George’s, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary’s Counties.  In these areas snow and blowing snow is expected to reduce visibility below 1/4 mile with winds over 35 mph for and extended period late tonight and early Saturday morning.  The developing coastal storm is now centered over southern Georgia with a central pressure of 999 millibars.  This is about as strong as the models were predicting 12 hours ago, but the actual position is farther southwest; the models had the low into South Carolina by this time.  So, it may be just a blip, or it may be that the system is a little slower…we’ll see.  The deepest pressure falls are over eastern North Carolina, just to the north of the coastal front which separates warm, ocean air with temperatures in the 50s and 60s from Wilmington, NC south to Charleston, SC, from cold, polar air with temperatures in the 30s inland over the Carolinas.  This huge temperature gradient will fuel explosive storm intensification as it tracks toward the deepest pressure falls in the next few hours.  It looks on track to be just east of Norfolk shortly after dawn on Saturday, producing strong east/northeast winds and heavy snow over much of Maryland.  The 18z (1pm EST) GFS model was till producing over 2″ liquid precipitation for Baltimore, so it looks like we are on track to pick up over 20″ of snow.  The limiting factors for actual accumulation are the potential for a brief period of sleet, and the heavy, wet nature of the snow which will mean the snow packs instead of fluffing up.

Tom Tasselmyer

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7 Responses

  1. Tom,

    Sorry to bug you again, I just have another question. The snow seems to be getting drier which means its getting colder. When do you think sleet will mix in? because I am in Severna Park.. Right now I have about 3″ on my deck. I measured 2.8. I would think the sleet would of mixed it earlier when it was warmer but the warm air aloft will come in later tonight?

  2. 4″ here in Severna Park at 9pm. No sign of sleet yet.

  3. If the system is a bit slower, does that mean, possibly, more or less snow for us?

    I used to see you at the MAC and always asked for 18″ of snow. Not 2 – 3 feet! I really have got to be more careful what I pray for.

  4. What about howard county namely elkridge ellicott city
    area?

  5. Gordon,
    I think after 1am we will be past the sleet threat. Should be pure snow from there on out…if you haven’t had sleet yet, you’re looking good.

    Tom

  6. Mel,
    Not necessarily, I think the actual observed weather will catch up to the model projections in the next few hours.

    Tom

  7. Shaun,
    Lots of snow and wind for Elkridge too.

    Tom

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