Afternoon Data Supports Heavy Snow

The late afternoon computer model runs continue to point toward a heavy snowfall for the Baltimore area from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.  At 5:30 p.m. the main part of the weekend storm was a 1007 millibar low centered on the Louisiana gulf coast.  This storm is forecast to deepen to under 1000 millibars and track east/northeast toward Charleston, SC by Friday evening, then rapidly intensify to under 984 millibars as it moves to a position east of Norfolk Saturday afternoon.  The afternoon GFS model cranked out over 2.2″ of liquid precipitation in Baltimore for this storm, which might be a bit overdone.  It will be interesting to see if when the next model runs incorporate the data from this evening’s balloon launches the 2″+ precipitation total is repeated.  Either way, some very impressive vertical motions are forecast for Friday night and early Saturday morning, leading to the possibility of some thundersnow!  The storm looks to arrive in central Maryland between 10am and 2pm Friday and for now we’ll stick with 17-26″ of snow for most areas before the storm winds down Saturday afternoon.   Another update later this evening.

Tom Tasselmyer

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