Storm Likely To Stay South

The Wednesday evening run of the numerical weather prediction models has begun to show a consensus on the track of Saturday’s snowstorm.  Most models are now indicating strong, arctic high pressure building in from the midwest will suppress the storm farther south.  As a result, the low pressure system will track from southern Arizona to south central Texas to southern Georgia and then, instead of moving up the coast toward Maryland, will track off the coast and out to sea.  If this track holds, the heavviest band of snow will stay well south of Baltimore, falling on central and southern Virginia.   If the high is weaker, the track could shift back to the north, but as of 11:00pm Wednesday evening it looks like a near miss for the Baltimore area.  Stay tuned!

Tom Tasselmyer


3 Responses

  1. How much is it likely that you could be compeltly wrong and we could get hit by this storm

  2. Jessica,

    All of us who have spent a few decades trying to predict weather have been wrong, if not “completely wrong”, at least a couple times. So, there is always that chance. And, since a very small change in the track this weekend’s storm would dramatically change the kind of weather we have around here, this storm is extremely tricky to forecast. If the storm simply wobbles a few miles to the north the heavy snow we think will fall in central and southern Virginia would be shifted into Maryland. That’s why the next 24 hours will be crucial. Once we get to within 24 hours of the main part of the storm the chances of being “completely wrong” go way down. So…stay tuned!

    Thanks for checking out the weather blog and for watching WBAL-TV!

    Tom Tasselmyer

  3. Looks like you were wrong…

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