Thursday evening models trend toward heavy snow

The late evening run of our most reliable computer models has trended toward an earlier arrival of the weekend snowstorm and the POSSIBILITY of some very heavy snow. Emphasis on the “possibility”. This is just one run of the models and it is more than 24 hours away, but I’ve posted the snowfall accumulation map from our in-house model which has done a very good job of forecasting precipitation for us over the past year or so. The model shows snow crossing the Potomac and entering Montgomery Co. by late Friday evening, arriving in Baltimore City by 11:00 p.m. Friday. This is a couple hours earlier than the afternoon models were indicating. More importantly, however, the Thursday evening model runs, which I showed on WBAL-TV 11 News at 11:00pm, are now cranking out snow that would be measured by the foot along the I-95 corridor by noon on Sunday. Is this model on to something, or is it a glitch which will disappear when new data is ingested into the model Friday morning? My gut feeling is the model is too heavy with the snow, but the trend toward higher snow totals is probably right. Stay tuned…updates throughout Friday as the storm approaches.

Tom Tasselmyer

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One Response

  1. Looks like this model was close to accurate. Nice Post.

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