Friday Afternoon Storm Update

Ok, here we go. The latest ideas on the pending Saturday storm. Please keep in mind that the ultimate track of the storm will determine the snow totals for the area so all of the following is subject to adjustment.

It appears that at least a foot of snow is likely with this storm with close to two feet in the realm of possibility. A few computer models go beyond that.

The storm center in in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

The map above shows the best current estimate for the storm track. This track favors the Mid Atlantic region with the most snow, rather than New England.

The maps above outlines the areas for the Winter Storm Warning (pink) and the Winter Storm Watch (slate blue) as of Friday afternoon.

Broad estimates on the range of snow accumulations are expressed in the two maps below.

The map below shows snow estimates through Saturday afternoon based on one set opf computer models.

The map indicates 9 inches across much of central and northeast Maryland. Keep in mind that this map is only forecasting snow totals for the first half of the storm.

The map above displays the snow total estimate for the entire duration of the storm based on a computer model we use in the WBAL weather office. It shows that 2 feet of snow is possible for Baltimore and beyond that in the counties northwest of the city. It is quite possible that this model is overstating the situation to some degree and adjustments are likely in the next 12 to 18 hours.

An earlier blog referred to the low odds for snow on the ground in the Baltimore area for any given Christmas. With temperatures remaining way below normal next week, whatever snow we get this weekend will still be around on Christmas. In fact, the long range forecast map for Christmas Day shows that another storm could be moving into the area with additional snow or a wintry mix. Longer range computer models indicate another storm threatening the eastern seaboard  around the first of the year. It sure looks like mother nature is making up for the lack of extreme winter weather over the past couple of years.

Check back for updates and be watching our regular newscasts for the latest.

John Collins

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One Response

  1. Based on the 17:45 UTC radar, the storm center in the Gulf almost appears to have an eye.

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