Nor’easter staying east

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The latest ensemble means (the “mean” result of several computer model runs) for three of our most reliable medium range forecast models, continue to show this week’s coastal storm staying far enough east to deliver just a glancing blow to the mid Atlantic region.  If the track holds, we’ll probably see some light snow or snow showers here (1-3″), along with gusty winds and cold temperatures, but the brunt of a major nor’easter would miss us off the coast.  I have posted the latest output for the Canadian, European and U.S. GFS models with a red line drawn from the tip of Long Island, NY to Cape Hatteras.  Experience has shown that storms staying east of that line are too far off the coast for significant snow to fall in Baltimore.  Each model posted tonight is still showing a track to the east of that line.  Right now it looks like a miss, but we still have another day to watch this one unfold…stay tuned.

Tom Tasselmyer

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