Nor’easter Ensemble Update

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The morning run of the computer models trying to get a handle on next week’s possible nor’easter continue to show a near miss for the Baltimore area.  As we posted last night, the ensembles are the mean result of a given model processed many times with slight variations introduced for each run.  These ensemble means are sometimes the best way to forecast a storm that can’t seem to settle on a single track.  Posted here, from top to bottom, are the ensemble means for 7am Tuesday from the Canadian, European and U.S. GFS (Global Forecast System) models.  Each model is still showing the center of the low well off the coast, in a position that would keep the signifcant snow east of Baltimore.  Still three days away, however…stay tuned.

Tom Tasselmyer

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