What’s Next?

latest5

Fairly quiet weather going into the weekend. A cold front will be moving across the region on Friday but moisture is limited and if anything develops it should only be in the form of flurries, sprinkles or snow showers. In the satellite picture above, a lot of what looks like clouds west of Maryland is actually snow on the ground, deposited by the last storm.

The weekend looks uneventful.

By Monday a storm system is expected to move up the eastern seaboard.

9khpre

The forecast map above shows the storms possible location on Tuesday morning. Various computer models have this storm moving faster or slower and tracking farther east or farther west so it is too early to tell exactly how it will behave. Yesterday’s forecast map had this storm stronger and farther north and west for the same time period. An easterly track would favor snow and a westerly track would favor a wintry mix. It is something to watch for but it is way too early to have anxiety attacks over it.

Enjoy the weekend!

John Collins

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5 Responses

  1. John
    After reading with great interest on everyones take of this storm from both the pro mets and some forum boards. I have a question regarding models. Who or where determines what data is being entered into the models ? I mean two days ago this was a apps runner like the 1950 storm now it’s shifted 500 miles east in 24 hours. Thats crazy is that normal in your opinion for models to swing that much in a 24 hours?
    I’m no met I just like learning about the weather . Working outside in it for the last 25 yrs I’ve learned to pay close attention to forecasts.

  2. Bill,
    I’m not a pro met and I know that you’d rather get John’s explanation, (so would I) but I am a NWS spotter and have always had a huge interest in weather forecasting. These models take many,many variables and put them all together to make a picture, frame by frame. At 4 or 5 days out , like this storm, the variables like upper level troughs, interaction between high pressure etc are even tougher to predict, even for a computer. As each day passes something is eliminated as a variable and less is left to “chance”. I believe in this case that there was a change in the branches of the jet stream which act as a steering current for storm systems and sometimes as a gateway to cold arctic air and warm air from the south. When this was picked up as a more “certain variable” it shifted the track of the low 300 miles east. I hope this made sense, but like I said John will be the man to hear from on this. Happy weather watching! Keith Bel Air Md

  3. Keith,

    Thanks for the insight I appreciate the time you took to reply. Yes John did reply to me with a very informitive answer. As I mentioned to him either apps runner , on the coast or rain or snow this will be a pretty decent storm to watch evolve over the next couple days, esp with my new knowledge i’m picking up everyday.
    Take it easy and try to enjoy whatever comes down the pike for us for what its worth..
    Have a great day!!!
    Bill
    Hampstead

  4. Bill,
    No problem! I can’t believe how much this thing changes day to day. Now it may be that Ocean City gets more snow than Hagerstown! We’ll see, these models are going crazy and tomorrow they may be talking about a Bel Air mix and Hampstead blizzard! Take care. Keith

  5. Well time will tell . Certainly can remember over the yrs watching the flatlanders get decent snows while we basked in 30 degree sunshine. laughing

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