Monday Snow Burst

An added burst of energy from a nearly stalled weather disturbance has dusted many areas with about an inch of fluff so far today. It is enough though to make for some slippery driving conditions.

Last night this light snow accumulation was expected  to concentrate more to the south of Baltimore but has since proven to be a bit more wide spread. The latest computer models at 7am this morning forecast the radar returns to look like the image below.

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The actual radar returns are shown in the regional image below.

rad1218pmnej

The precipitation shown over the southern Chesapeake Bay and DELMARVA Peninsula was depicted in models last night but the additional precipitation to the north appeared in the morning model run. The morning simulated radar reflectivity forecast for midday turned out to be fairly close to the mark.

The image below is the surface weather map showing conditions late morning Monday.

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The map shows the complexity of the system. There is a low pressure center over the eastern Great Lakes with a “trof” reaching southwestward into Indiana. Another broad area of low pressure over N. Carolina and Tennessee  with a stationary front reaching northeastward to the Chesapeake Bay. Two other weak low pressure “trofs” stretch from the central Chesapeake Bay; one to the south and one to the southeast. Additionally, there is a bubble of high pressure in SE Pennsylvania. With this kind of setup there are numerous opportunities for subtle convergences of moisture, wind and pressure to set up pockets of precipitation and with today’s temperatures that means snow.

Another inch or so of the fluff in the region would not be out of the question but radar trends and the latest models seem to indicate that this activity should start to wind down during the afternoon. A Winter Weather Advisory is up for central and northern Maryland west of the Bay until 10:00pm Monday. As I hinted earlier in this blog, it is not much snow but it can make for slippery driving conditions so be careful.

John Collins

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