Monday Update

Well, the cold front moved through today and it carried a bit more moisture with it than anticipated, generating generally less than a tenth of an inch of light rain and drizzle today into the early evening hours Monday. The cloud deck was persistent all day and the lack of sun held the temperatures down. When the rain moved in about midday temperatures dropped from the low 50s into the 40s and never recovered.

Over the next couple of days the influx of cold air and an offshore disturbance will conspire to produce breezy conditions, a mix of clouds and some sun and a chance for a period or two of sprinkles or brief rain showers. A mix of rain and some snow is possible in the mountains.

NOAA Water Vapor Satellite Image … Monday Afternoon

The satellite image above clearly outlines the upper air “trof” of low pressure that is advancing on the eastern seaboard.

NOAA NAM Forecast Model for Tuesday Afternoon

The forecast map above shows the forecast storm position early Tuesday afternoon with the rain shield beginning to move to the northeast. The blue line that dips into northern Florida is the freeze line for temperatures at the 850 mb level ( approx. 8,000 feet around Baltimore ). Winds are northerly at that level and that is why the temperatures have fallen. The blue line roughly approximates the outline of upper air “trof” that shows up on the satellite image near the top of this article. At an altitude of 11,500 feet ( 750 mb level) the winds are blowing from a south-southwesterly direction and those are the winds that will push the storm away from the area during the day Tuesday, reducing the rain chances.

By the middle to end of the week, temperatures should begin to moderate along with a reduction in cloudiness as the entire upper air “trof” drifts to the northeast.

John Collins


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