End Of Summer Ramblings

Autumn begins on Monday so I thought I’d take a look back at the basic statistics of the “astronomical summer” of 2008.

Temperatures (June 20-September 21) were far from extreme this year. Only 20 days were 90 degrees or warmer:

  • June (20th-30th) – 3 days
  • July – 10 days
  • August – 4 days
  • September (1st-21st) – 3 days

Precipitation (June 20 – September 21) totaled 10.39 inches. Once again, nothing extreme except for July.

  • June (20th-30th) – 1.03 inches
  • July – 5.47 inches
  • August – 1.48 inches
  • September (1st-21st) – 2.41 inches

As the region moves into the autumn months precipitation is running ahead of the annual average to date with a surplus of 1.91 inches. If it weren’t for the month of July though, the area would probably be in deficit territory.

The past eight days have been rain free so a little precipitation wouldn’t hurt. A fix for that may be on the way. Computer models indicate that a coastal weather feature may crank up off the Carolinas by the end of the week. The models do not have a good handle on the details though so beneficial rains may or may not fall. Our forecast allows for a rain chance beginning late Thursday but the timing and strength of the storm are far from certain. A best guess right now would place the highest rain and wind chances east of the Bay. The NOAA computer model chart (below) for Thursday evening shows the developing storm off shore.

This is but one of several models and there is no firm agreement among them on the timing and extent of this weather feature.

Note that there is a more significant “storm” on the chart southwest of the coastal feature. This is where this computer model positions what is now a low pressure system near Puerto Rico. Forecasters are monitoring this storm for further tropical development. An Air Force plane surveyed the storm Sunday and could not find sufficient organization to label the storm a tropical depression.  Conditions are favorable for further development and the storm could become a depression at any time. Kyle is the next name on the list if the storm reaches tropical storm strength.

This week could become interesting.

John Collins

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