Atlantic Storm…Afternoon Update

The developing storm in the Atlantic continues to become more organized.

The cloud pattern shows explosive thunderstorm development in the northeast and northwest quadrants of a more clearly defined center. The cloud tops are not being sheared off to the degreee that they were yesterday and there is a hint of a developing outflow pattern that is typical of a tropical system. Below is a midday statement from the National Hurricane Center.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI SEP 7 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING WITHIN THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT…AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER KNABB

The graphic above is a computer model of a possible storm position and rainfall pattern for Saturday afternoon. The model depiction shows the storm travelling around the western edge of a ridge of high pressure centered out in the Atlantic. The western nose of that ridge(over southeast Virginia)is expected to give way and allow the storm to move more northward after Saturday. Based on this model, that would steer the storm toward the eastern Carolinas by Sunday and then on to the north or northeast. The graphic also shows rain lined up along a cold front west of the mountains. The eastward movement of the front will be the controlling factor in how far north the Atlantic storm can move before being pushed to the east. This is just one of a number of models that forecasters use to predict the the possible track and potential impact of storms.

It will be interesting to see if the development we have seen so far today will hold together and possibly develop into Gabrielle.

John Collins

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