No Gabrielle Yet…and…Dr. Gray’s Update

A look at the morning satellite images over the Atlantic shows the weak circulation associated with low pressure southwest of Bermuda is less organized than it was yesterday afternoon. We’ll have to see if showers and thunderstorms redevelop around this system during the afternoon. Steering winds appear to favor a southwest drift, which would take the system toward some very warm waters north of the Bahamas. Computer models this morning are still showing intensification with the possibility of a full blown tropical storm or hurricane making a run at the Carolina coast by late Saturday.

Meanwhile, Dr. Bill Gray, the hurricane forecasting guru out at Colorado State University has issued his latest update for the busiest part of the hurricane season. In September he says we’ll have 5 named storms, 4 of which will become hurricanes and 2 of those will be major hurricanes (category 3 or higher). For the entire season, here’s how Dr. Gray’s forecasts have been adjusted:

May 31 Forecast: 17 storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes
August 3 Forecast: 15 storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes
September 4 Forecast: 15 storms, 7 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes

So far this season we have observed 6 storms, 2 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

Tom Tasselmyer


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