Tuesday-Locally Dry & Active Tropics

LOCALLY

Drier than usual weather continues in the Mid Atlantic region. At BWI-Marshall precipitation is .92″ below average for August, 2.69″ below average since June 1 and 5.37″ below average for the year. A disturbance will pass too far north to be a rainmaker tomorrow but a cool front Friday may produce scattered thunderstorms.

TROPICS

Activity continues to increase in the tropics. A weather disturbance has moved out of the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico. Water temperatures are warm and upper winds are more favorable so the disturbance has a better chance to become a tropical depression. Although the storm may never strengthen enough, the next name on the list for storms is Erin. See the area highlighted #1 on the satellite picture below.

Tropical storm Dean continues its’ westward movment (highlighted above with the tropical storm symbol). Forecast models continue to swing back and forth on the track of the storm and the latest morning forecasts have skewed to a more southerly track than yesterday, increasing the threat to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend.

The latest long range run of the GFS places the storm back in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

The models seem to be having a problem determining the strength of an Atlantic ridge and the influence it will have on steering winds, especially in the long term.

Hurricane Flossie has lost a little strength but continues its’ trek just south of the Hawaiian Islands. The big island is the most threatened with hurricane or tropical storm force winds.

Check in with Neal and Sandra for updates on all of this in our regular newscasts. WBAL-TV InstaWeather Plus runs 24/7 on 11-2, Comcast 208 and Verizon FiOS 860 and is streamed live on our web site.

John Collins

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