Tropical Weather May Be Heating Up

After much discussion about the unimpressive hurricane season so far, things may be heating up in the Caribbean and Atlantic. Forecasters in Miami are looking at two disturbances.

Disturbance #1 is a surface feature in the Caribbean and is not that well organized but is being watched.

Disturbance #2 is a significant tropical wave coming off the west African coast and the system will be watched with great interest over the next few days. Computer models have picked up on this feature over the past couple of days and have tried to develop it. If the models are on to something this could be a well developed storm by next weekend somewhere in the vicinity of Puerto Rico. Models then take the storm into the Gulf of Mexico the following week.

Because the computer models are forecasting situations that are one to two weeks in the future, considerable error in positioning and strength has to be accounted for. Below are charts depicting two different runs of the GFS model. The earlier model run places the storm now in the eastern Atlantic in the eastern Gulf of Mexico 11 to 12 days from now and the later run places the storm in the western Gulf.

If you take the model run out to Monday, August 27, an additional storm is depicted in the vicinity of the Bahamas(lower right on the chart below).

It is way too early to be specific about the possible development of these storms. Significantly organized storms may fail to materialize but the warmer waters and wind conditions over the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are much more favorable for storm development than they have been recently so the situation will be watched carefully. Check in from time to time with this blog for updates

John Collins

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