4th Driest May, Rain On The Way?

The final rain total for May 2007 at BWI-Marshall airport was a meager 0.94″, nearly three inches (2.95″) below the 30 year average for the month. That puts May 2007 in the books as the 4th driest on record, with official observations in Baltimore going back to 1871.

Year Rain
1986: 0.37″
1964: 0.43″
1957: 0.55″
2007: 0.94″

With the new month comes the chance to change our dry weather pattern. Warm, muggy air will create a daily chance of evening thunderstorms, while an area of low pressure moving north from the gulf of Mexico will bring the possibility of more widespread, significant rain. The track of that gulf low, however, is still in doubt. Two of our more reliable computer models are still not agreeing on the position of the low as it passes the mid Atlantic states Sunday night into Monday. I’ve posted the graphics showing the discrepancy in the models at 2:00 a.m. Monday morning (late Sunday night). The GFS (a global scale model) is keeping the best rain off the coast, while the NAM-WRF (a higher resolution, more regional scale model) is bringing the good rains inland across the Carolinas, Virginia and headed toward central and eastern Maryland. Hopefully the new runs of these models later today will clarify our rain chances.

Tom Tasselmyer


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