Helpful Rain

This past Saturday the area received its’ first significant rain since April. It did not produce even results though. BWI-Marshall officially received .30″ but the Inner Harbor received just over an inch as did many areas of eastern Baltimore, Harford and Cecil counties. Elkton checked in with 1.17″. On TV Hill we measured .76″ but in contrast, many parts of Howard County received less than .30″ with Ellicott City measuring only .03″.

As of Sunday, Baltimore is running .92″ below normal for 2007, 1.05″ above normal since March 1 and 1.19″ below normal for this month. The upshot is that many areas still need a good rain. More rain is in the forecast by mid-week.

Temperatures will be all over the ballpark this week. Monday morning is expected to start out in the 40s in the metro area but perhaps some upper 30s could crop up to the north and west. Parts of Pennsylvania and western Maryland may even experience some patchy frost. Highs should just break into the 70s on Monday but shoot into the 80s again on Tuesday ahead of a cool front. After that front passes it looks like the week ends with highs only in the 60s to near 70.

Preakness is Saturday and for the moment the forecast looks favorable but there is a potential fly in the ointment. A storm developing southeast of Florida will be heading north during the week and it should carry a load of tropical moisture with it. Computer models are keeping it relatively far off shore until the weekend when it could drift into New England. A shift in timing or track is something to watch for. If it does wind up near New England on Saturday, disturbances rotating around its’ outer edges may change the flavor of the weather in Baltimore. Stay tuned. This uncertainty is typical in longer range forecasts and we’ll have to see how the various computer models play out over the next few days.

John Collins

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