Wintry Mix Possible

The coldest air of winter so far will retreat to the northeast tonight, allowing mositure from a very active southern branch of the jet stream to move toward the mid Atlantic states. Low pressure is expected to develop off the South Carolina coast early Thursday morning and then track northeast toward the outer banks of North Carolina during the day. The storm will likely brush past Maryland as it tracks off shore and rapidly intensifies near Cape Cod on Friday. If the storm holds to this track (a big “if”), rain, sleet and snow will move from North Carolina into central and southeast Virginia during the late morning of Thursday. A chilly rain will spread onto Maryland’s lower eastern shore during the afternoon with a chance of light sleet or snow west of the bay during the late afternoon and evening. Precipitation, of any variety, is expected to be light in the Baltimore area, generally .10″ to .25″, which combined with warm ground temperatures, will limit potential snow and sleet accumulations to an inch or two. There is still the very real possiblity of the storm staying to our south and east with little or no precipitation falling west of the bay. The image posted here shows the 1pm Thursday forecast from the high resolution WRF model run at the Baltimore/Washington National Weather Service Forecast Office. Green represents rain, red and purple show areas of sleet or freezing rain and blue is the forecast snow. New computer model runs tonight will hopefully add some insight. More updates as the storm approaches.

Tom Tasselmyer


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