Another Round Of Storms Thursday

The stormy leading edge of a collapsing Mesoscale Convective System (MCS), with origins Wednesday in Iowa and Illinois, moved across the Baltimore area Thursday morning. The heaviest rains along with some hail were north of I-70, Baltimore City and I-95.

The track of this storm complex was similar to last year’s derecho but the system was not nearly as strong so it did not meet derecho criteria.

The area is still under the gun for some heavy weather on Thursday.

7:00 AM Thursday Surface Map / Source: NOAA

Maryland is in the warm, humid airmass. A deep low pressure area will track across Pennsylvania with a cold front trailing to the southwest. This system will likely trigger strong storm activity in the warm, humid, unstable airmass this afternoon.

The morning storms did help to stabilize, to some extent, the airmass in northern Maryland. This has most likely shifted the highest severe weather probabilities a bit to the south of the Baltimore/Washington metro areas but it doesn’t mean the area is completely out of the woods.

The two charts below show CAPE and Lifted Index values as of mid-morning.

CAPE  (Source: SPC/NOAA)

Lifted Index  (Source: SPC/NOAA)

CAPE is, in essence, an expression of energy in the atmosphere for making storms and when values are in the thousands there is a severe potential. As of mid-morning the highest values have been pushed south by the early morning storms.

Lifted Index is an expression of stability/instability in the atmosphere. Negative numbers are unstable indicators. As of mid-morning the higher valued negative numbers are also concentrated to the south of the metro area because of the morning storm activity.

The bottom line, the Baltimore area will likely be on the northern edge of severe storm activity this afternoon and evening. It all depends on how much destabilization can occur before the cold front comes in. Sunbreaks will help but cloud cover will be considerable for the rest of the day.

The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the area until 7:00pm.

Thunderstorm Watch area PINK / Flood Watch area GREEN     (Source: NWS/NOAA)

As storm activity develops, the Watch area could be extended to the Eastern Shore counties.

The latest updates are available anytime on the web at wbaltv.com/weather. Join Tom Tasselmyer for the latest at 5-6 & 11pm on WBAL-TV 11 and at 10 pm on WBAL+.

John Collins

Bumpy Weather Ahead

The atmosphere around the Mid Atlantic is becoming primed and ready for stormy conditions over the next couple of days.

A stalled front reaches from New Jersey to low pressure in Iowa. Dewpoints south of the Front are in the 60s to around 70 (very humid). North of the front dewpoints are in the 50s.

Wednesday Midday Surface Map / Source: NOAA

The thin cloud deck over the Chesapeake Bay area at midday will allow heating and destabilization of the atmosphere during the afternoon. The boundary just to the north is a focus point and strong upper air winds will help energize any storms that develop or move into the area.

BWI Forecast Sounding for Wednesday Evening / Source: NIU

The right edge of the BWI forecast SKEW-T chart for Wednesday evening indicates that there will be some directional and wind speed shear. Other values on the chart are indicative of storm potential.

Wednesday Storm Outlook / Source: SPC/NOAA

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center places the highest chances for severe weather on Wednesday between the Ohio River Valley and the lower Great Lakes with a bullseye near Chicago. The Chesapeake Bay area is in the “Slight Risk” area.

Thursday Storm Outlook / Source: SPC/NOAA

By Thursday the focus moves east with the low pressure system and storms. The Chesapeake Bay area is right in the middle of the “Moderate Risk” target for severe storm potential. It will all depend on the timing of the approach of the cold front and the degree of the destabilization of the atmosphere.

Check out the forecast at anytime on the web at wbaltv.com/weather

John Collins

More Storms On The Way

Monday (6/10/13) was a very active day for storms around Baltimore. A waterspout and several possible tornadoes were reported/sighted. The National Weather Service will be a several locations nearby on Tuesday to investigate storm damage.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1050 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

...PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEYS UNDERWAY TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
WILL CONDUCT STORM SURVEYS OF AT LEAST FIVE AREAS TODAY IN CONCERT
WITH STATE AND COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THESE LOCATIONS ARE
FORK MARYLAND IN BALTIMORE COUNTY...BALTIMORE CITY NEAR LOCUST
POINT... WOODBINE MARYLAND AND THE ROUTE 94 CORRIDOR IN HOWARD
COUNTY INTO NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY... COLTONS POINT IN SAINT
MARYS COUNTY... AND CHARLES COUNTY BETWEEN LA PLATA AND WALDORF.

THESE SURVEYS ARE IN RELATION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY.

A FINAL ASSESSMENT INCLUDING RESULTS OF THE SURVEY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE COMPLETED AND TRANSMITTED VIA A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
THIS WEEK... POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE TODAY FOR SOME OF THE
DAMAGED AREAS.

IT WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE...WHICH CAN BE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/WASHINGTON.

 One of the areas to be investigated will be western Howard County where a storm cell generated a tornado warning. Some damage was reported. Radar at the time displayed a “velocity couplet” that is a signature for possible tornado activity.

Highlighted point is an indicator of a possible tornado

The brighter green spot at the tip of the arrow along side an area of red is an indicator of rotating winds at an increased velocity. This “couplet” moved into south central Carroll County over a twenty minute period before dissipating.

The front that generated Monday’s storms has moved east but another system will be approaching late Wednesday into Thursday. Another round of storms is likely in that time period and the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has targeted the Mid Atlantic region with the potential for a slight risk of severe storms.

Convective Outlook for Thursday

Ceck out our web site    wbaltv.com/weather    for updates.

John Collins

Rare Blooms Help Kick off Conservatory’s 125th Anniversary Celebration

It’s a historic event at the Howard Peters Rawlings Conservatory. Two giant agave plants have begun their once-in-a-lifetime blooms just in time for the conservatory’s 125th anniversary.

“It’s as if they joined the [planning] committee” said Kate Blom, Conservatory Supervisor.

Built in 1888 at Baltimore’s Druid Hill Park, the Rawlings Conservatory is the second oldest glass-enclosed conservatory in the country, and the last still standing in Baltimore. Blom estimates these agave plants are between 40 to 80 years old.

The Agave Americana was the first to show signs of blooming. On March 22, 2013, a large, asparagus-shaped stalk appeared from its center. Workers at the conservatory had to remove panes of glass from the roof to allow it to keep growing.

   

You can imagine the amazement the conservatory staff felt when they also found their second giant agave blooming. WBAL TV visited the conservatory on May 8, when the second stalk was just 10 days old. It was already getting ready to protrude the roof, see the video here: http://www.wbaltv.com/weather/ava-checks-out-giant-agave-at-rawlings-conservatory/-/9380898/20060418/-/o5346i/-/index.html

“You can practically come in here and each day you’ll see that it’s moved and grown,” said Blom.

Now in mid-May, individual flower stalks are starting to show up on the first plant. Any additional sunshine will likely help speed the process along. What the flowers will look like is anyone’s guess. No one has actually ever seen them before.

The sight will no doubt be bitter sweet. Agave plants bloom just once in their lifetime, always to signify that they’ve reach the very end of their life. So far, there’s no clear indication on whether or not the two blooms are connected. Last year, the Conservatory did a thorough soaking of the desert room where the plants live. Blom said that it’s possible that the abundance of water may have encouraged the plants to flower in an attempt to reseed.

A noble gesture by these plants, as the Conservatory ramps up its efforts to raise awareness and funds for its 125th anniversary celebration. According to Blom, more than 600 people have come to see the plants so far.

The conservatory is located at 3100 Swann Drive next to the Druid Hill Park Reservoir in Baltimore. They are open to the public Wednesday through Sunday, 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. Admission is free, but there is a suggested $5 donation. For more information, you can visit their website: http://www.rawlingsconservatory.org

By Ava Marie

MONDAY SNOW

UPDATE:

6:00 PM, Monday, 25 March, 2013

The Baltimore official snowfall total for Monday at BWI-Marshall Airport as of 5:00pm was 3.2 inches, beating the 1933 record of 2.5 inches. The final snowfall total for Monday will not be determined until after midnight.

Today’s storm was strengthening off the coast during the afternoon and the dramatic NASA satellite image below demonstrates how surprisingly similar this deepening low pressure center  resembles a hurricane.

The list below is the updated snow totals information from the National Weather Service:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
315 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BALTIMORE

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
                     SNOWFALL           OF 
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
   AMERICAN UNIVERSITY    2.5  1100 AM  3/25  BROADCAST MEDIA         

MARYLAND

...ALLEGANY COUNTY...
   2 NNW FROSTBURG        9.0   300 PM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   ECKHART MINES          8.0  1020 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 S ECKHART MINES      7.0  1031 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY...
   BWI AIRPORT            3.2   158 PM  3/25  AIRPORT                 
   1 ENE CHURCHTON        2.5  1047 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 NW RIVA              1.5  1025 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...BALTIMORE COUNTY...
   1 E OELLA              5.3   200 PM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 NW LONG GREEN        5.3  1000 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SE GARRISON          5.2  1050 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 NE CATONSVILLE       5.0  1048 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 S PARKVILLE          5.0   928 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 NNW BROOKLANDVILLE   4.8  1130 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   PARKVILLE              4.5   940 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SW DUNDALK           4.1  1057 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   REISTERSTOWN           4.0  1110 AM  3/25  PUBLIC                  
   WHITE MARSH            4.0  1052 AM  3/25  FIRE DEPT/RESCUE        
   2 ESE HUNT VALLEY      3.8  1000 AM  3/25  BROADCAST MEDIA         
   1 NE ROSSVILLE         3.5  1113 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...BALTIMORE CITY...
   PIMLICO                5.0   945 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...CALVERT COUNTY...
   2 N HUNTINGTOWN        2.9   945 AM  3/25  NWS EMPLOYEE            

...CARROLL COUNTY...
   1 ENE NEW WINDSOR      5.0  1100 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   3 WSW LINEBORO         5.0   940 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   3 SE WINFIELD          4.8  1100 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   WOODBINE               3.0  1029 AM  3/25  PUBLIC                  
   1 S WINFIELD           3.0   930 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...CHARLES COUNTY...
   1 SW WALDORF           3.0   930 AM  3/25  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   2 ESE BRYANS ROAD      2.7   930 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...FREDERICK COUNTY...
   1 NE POINT OF ROCKS    4.1  1200 PM  3/25  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   2 NW NEW MARKET        3.2  1100 AM  3/25  NWS EMPLOYEE            

...HARFORD COUNTY...
   WHITEFORD              3.0  1115 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...HOWARD COUNTY...
   2 N COLUMBIA           5.4   930 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   GLENWOOD               5.0  1126 AM  3/25  PUBLIC                  
   WOODSTOCK              5.0  1044 AM  3/25  PUBLIC                  
   2 SE GAITHER           5.0  1000 AM  3/25  COCORAHS                

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
   1 NNE FAIRLAND         4.5  1056 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 ESE NORBECK          4.0   945 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 NNW NORTH POTOMAC    3.5  1200 PM  3/25  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   1 WSW FAIRLAND         3.0  1030 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   TAKOMA PARK            1.7   922 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY...
   1 N GREENBELT          3.0  1010 AM  3/25  COCORAHS                
   1 SW OXON HILL         2.8  1045 AM  3/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          

...ST. MARYS COUNTY...
   1 NNW CALIFORNIA       1.0   915 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 NE BUSHWOOD          0.5  1228 PM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
   MAUGANSVILLE           6.2   100 PM  3/25  PUBLIC                  
   ROHERSVILLE            5.5  1015 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   3 SSW CAVETOWN         4.0   945 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 SSW LONG MEADOW      4.0  1030 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
447 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE MARCH 25TH
STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO
HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND
SOCIAL MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR
HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

DELAWARE

...KENT COUNTY...
   DOVER                  1.9   919 AM  3/25  DEOS
   CAMDEN                 1.5   908 AM  3/25  PUBLIC
   VIOLA                  1.4   920 AM  3/25  DEOS
   HARRINGTON             0.9   921 AM  3/25  DEOS

...NEW CASTLE COUNTY...
   HOCKESSIN              3.3   929 AM  3/25  PUBLIC
   PIKE CREEK             3.0   856 AM  3/25  PUBLIC
   NEW CASTLE             2.9   409 PM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER
   ODESSA                 2.8  1135 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER
   GREENVILLE             2.6  1000 AM  3/25  DEOS
   NEWARK                 2.2   741 AM  3/25  LESS ON PAVEMENT
   BLACKBIRD              2.2   919 AM  3/25  DEOS
   GLASGOW                1.3   918 AM  3/25  DEOS
   WILMINGTON AIRPORT     1.1   200 PM  3/25  ASOS
   PRICES CORNER          1.1   914 AM  3/25  DEOS
   WILMINGTON             1.1   200 PM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER
   CLAYMONT               1.1   914 AM  3/25  DEOS
   WHITE CLAY CREEK       1.0   917 AM  3/25  DEOS

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
   BRIDGEVILLE            0.9   923 AM  3/25  DEOS
   ELLENDALE              0.4   922 AM  3/25  DEOS

MARYLAND

...CECIL COUNTY...
   COLORA                 3.7  1059 AM  3/25  COCORAHS

...KENT COUNTY...
   MILLINGTON             3.0  1035 AM  3/25  PUBLIC
   ROCK HALL              2.0   850 AM  3/25  PUBLIC

...QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY...
   QUEENSTOWN             3.0   850 AM  3/25  PUBLIC

...TALBOT COUNTY...
   EASTON                 2.0   820 AM  3/25  PUBLIC

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
145 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

MARYLAND

...DORCHESTER COUNTY...
   CAMBRIDGE              0.5   815 AM  3/25  VIA FACEBOOK

 PREVIOUS ENTRY:

The snowfall finally started in the predawn hours on Monday with temperatures close to the freezing point so it started to accumulate. By 8:30am as much as 5 inches of snow was reported around the area. More is on the way.

The National Weather Service 8am surface map shows the strengthening offshore low with the weakening low over Ohio. The offshore low will be pushing moisture toward the Baltimore area the rest of the day with what is expected to be a combination of rain and snow.

The storm total forecast map indicates a potential for a near record snowfall for Baltimore. The record is 2.5 inches set in 1933. It’s tough to make snow in late March.

The snow totals reported to the National Weather Service as of 8:30 this morning are as follows.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
853 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 3
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BALTIMORE

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
                     SNOWFALL           OF 
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
   DALECARLIA RESERVOIR   1.0   800 AM  3/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          

MARYLAND

...ALLEGANY COUNTY...
   1 ENE MOUNT SAVAGE     8.0   817 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   FROSTBURG              7.1   700 AM  3/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   1 S CUMBERLAND         6.0   700 AM  3/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   2 WNW OLDTOWN          5.5   630 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY...
   FORT MEADE             4.0   820 AM  3/25  PUBLIC                  
   ANNAPOLIS              2.5   700 AM  3/25  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   BWI AIRPORT            2.1   800 AM  3/25  AIRPORT                 
   LINTHICUM              2.0   615 AM  3/25  DEPT OF HIGHWAYS        

...BALTIMORE COUNTY...
   2 NE CATONSVILLE       4.0   815 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 E GLYNDON            4.0   745 AM  3/25  PUBLIC                  
   1 SE GARRISON          4.0   730 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 E OELLA              3.5   745 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 NW LONG GREEN        3.5   730 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SW LONG GREEN        3.5   700 AM  3/25  COCORAHS                
   1 WSW GLYNDON          3.4   852 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   DUNDALK                3.0   830 AM  3/25  PUBLIC                  
   HUNT VALLEY            2.2   645 AM  3/25  BROADCAST MEDIA         
   WHITE MARSH            1.5   820 AM  3/25  PUBLIC                  
   1 NE ROSSVILLE         1.2   615 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...BALTIMORE CITY...
   PIMLICO                3.5   715 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...CALVERT COUNTY...
   2 WNW HUNTINGTOWN      2.0   715 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   LUSBY                  1.0   630 AM  3/25  PUBLIC                  

...CARROLL COUNTY...
   WESTMINSTER            5.0   830 AM  3/25  PUBLIC                  
   UNION BRIDGE           5.0   820 AM  3/25  PUBLIC                  
   ELDERSBURG             5.0   830 AM  3/25  PUBLIC                  
   2 E LINEBORO           4.7   807 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   3 WSW LINEBORO         4.5   729 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   3 NNW GAITHER          4.5   803 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 W WESTMINSTER        4.5   730 AM  3/25  PUBLIC                  
   3 SE WINFIELD          2.4   700 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...CHARLES COUNTY...
   SAINT CHARLES          2.5   800 AM  3/25  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   WHITE PLAINS           2.0   630 AM  3/25  BROADCAST MEDIA         

...FREDERICK COUNTY...
   MYERSVILLE             5.5   700 AM  3/25  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   MIDDLETOWN             5.0   630 AM  3/25  BROADCAST MEDIA         
   4 ESE SMITHSBURG       5.0   820 AM  3/25  PUBLIC                  
   THURMONT               4.0   559 AM  3/25  PUBLIC                  
   2 N LIBERTYTOWN        4.0   820 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   3 NW FREDERICK         4.0   705 AM  3/25  PUBLIC                  
   NEW MARKET             3.1   620 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 NW NEW MARKET        2.3   600 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 SE EMMITSBURG        2.0   625 AM  3/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          

...HARFORD COUNTY...
   2 E SCARBORO           3.0   758 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   EDGEWOOD               3.0   820 AM  3/25  PUBLIC                  

...HOWARD COUNTY...
   2 NNE COLUMBIA         4.3   720 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   ELLICOTT CITY          4.0   715 AM  3/25  COUNTY EMRG MGMT        
   2 SE GAITHER           4.0   700 AM  3/25  COCORAHS                
   2 N COLUMBIA           3.3   700 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SSE SIMPSONVILLE     3.0   700 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 WSW SAVAGE           2.0   605 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
   1 W FAIRLAND           4.0   805 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 ENE GAITHERSBURG     4.0   800 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 NNE FAIRLAND         3.5   700 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 ESE NORBECK          3.5   700 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 N DARNESTOWN         3.5   715 AM  3/25  PUBLIC                  
   2 W ROCKVILLE          3.5   700 AM  3/25  COCORAHS                
   1 ENE OLNEY            3.0   615 AM  3/25  COCORAHS                
   1 NNW DALECARLIA RES   2.0   600 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY...
   1 SE OXON HILL         2.5   700 AM  3/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   BOWIE                  0.5   630 AM  3/25  BROADCAST MEDIA         

...ST. MARYS COUNTY...
   5 NE MECHANICSVILLE    1.0   700 AM  3/25  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   1 NE LEONARDTOWN       1.0   600 AM  3/25  COCORAHS                
   4 E HOLLYWOOD          0.2   700 AM  3/25  COCORAHS                

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
   HAGERSTOWN             4.0   715 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 SE SMITHSBURG        4.0   715 AM  3/25  PUBLIC                  
   1 WSW CAVETOWN         3.6   625 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   5 S SHARPSBURG         3.4   700 AM  3/25  CO-OP OBSERVER

 Check out the complete forecast at www.wbaltv.com/weather.

John Collins

Spring Snow Possible

We’re four days into Spring and just a week away from Easter. Yet here we are, still facing the possibility of snow. Fortunately, for those of you cringing at the mention of the cursed “s” word, you have climatology on your side. The higher sun angle of late March makes it that much more difficult for snow to accumulation.

That being said, some snow accumulation is possible, especially north and west of Baltimore City. This will definitely be one of those elevation-driven snows.

Below is a preliminary snow forecast, and this mostly applies to GRASSY SURFACES. Expect less snow on the roads, if any at all. Roads that are south and east of I-95 are especially likely to just remain wet.

Bottom line, proceed with caution tomorrow. Any bit of ice or slush on the roads could make things slippery.

Snow Forecast through 6 pm Monday:

Precipitation Timeline:

Sunday Evening: a light wintry mix possible, little to no accumulation expected.

Sunday Overnight: wintry mix changes over to wet snow, especially north and west of I-95. Trace accumulations possible, mostly on grassy surfaces.

Monday Morning: wet snow for most, mixed with rain south and east of I-95. Minor accumulation possible, mostly between 5 am and 10 am.

Monday Afternoon: wet snow mixed with rain, little to no additional accumulation expected.

Monday Evening: wintry mix tapers off from west to east.

Significant Snow Event Possible

It’s the best chance we’ve seen for significant snow around Baltimore in almost two years. A winter storm will take aim at the Mid-Atlantic midweek, with a combination of heavy rain, snow and strong winds. Potential impacts of this storm include travel delays, downed trees, and scattered power outages.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday night through Wednesday night for the areas in blue. This includes the possibility of snow accumulations of 5 or more inches.

We’ll have a better idea of possible accumulations starting tonight and especially by tomorrow. For now, here’s a general overview of the event:

Tuesday Night

Rain or snow showers could begin as early as Tuesday evening, but the steadiest rain and snow should hold off until after midnight. A wintry mix is possible for areas south and east of I-95, while areas north and west have a better chance of getting some accumulation by sunrise.

Wednesday

Once the sun rises at 6:33 am on Wednesday, the temperatures will begin climbing. This will cause more rain to mix in with the snow, and will severely cut down on the chances for accumulation. During the day, as temperatures climb into the mid 30s, only the heaviest bands of snow will be capable of accumulating. Regardless of the type of precipitation your neighborhood gets, Wednesday will be a cold, wet, and windy day with slippery travel conditions.

Wedneday Afternoon and Evening

As the sun lowers on Wednesday afternoon and evening (sunset at 6:03 pm), the temperatures will begin falling. During this time, the storm will be moving to our east and intensifying. The winds will increase, and the precipitation will become heavier. Cold air will move in from west to east, causing the rain/snow line to shift east as well. This time period brings the best chance for accumulating snow across all of the Baltimore Metro Area, as well as the northern parts of the Eastern Shore and Delaware.

Thursday

The snow will taper off Thursday morning as temperatures fall into the low 30s degrees. Any snow already on the ground will continue to make travel difficult, and the roads will start to freeze over wherever it drops below 32 degrees. Strong winds will make the day feel raw with high temperatures only near 40. The winds will slowly decrease into Friday.

By Meteorologist Ava Marie

March Snowstorm? It’s Possible

Spring begins in less than 3 weeks, but winter refuses to step down early. A late season snowstorm is in the making, and could take aim at the Mid-Atlantic this week.

The storm in question is over the Northern Rockies right now.

From there, it will dive south into the Plains, before moving into Maryland late Tuesday. It will intensify as it moves off the coast, bringing concerns for strong winds and heavy snow on Wednesday.

How much snow we get depends on the storm’s exact track, a detail that remains fuzzy at this point. The latest forecast models bring the low somewhere between southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. If you’re a snow lover, you’ll be pulling for the more northerly track.

Regardless of the track, this storm will have to work that much harder to accumulate, given how late it is in the season. The month of March means longer days and a higher sun angle, which helps to warm the roads and lower atmosphere. In order to get accumulation, the snow will have to fall faster than it can melt. Only the heaviest snow bands will be capable of this.

The WBAL TV weather team will keep you updated as this storm approaches. Until then, be mindful of this potential storm and its impacts. Any combination of snow and wind could hinder travel or cause power outages Tuesday night through Thursday.

This Is January?

7:00 pm UPDATE………

The threat of stormy weather remains. Until the final cold front goes through the area sometime after midnight, heavy rain and possibly a severe thunderstorm are possible.

The National Weather Service has outlined areas for the potential for tornado producing thunderstorms. A TORNADO WATCH remains in effect for the area outlined in yellow on the National Weather Service map below until 2:00 AM Thursday.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING is also in effect for the western edge of the Tornado Watch area (red highlighted area). Some areas west of Baltimore have already received up to an inch of rain as estimated by radar up to 7:00pm.

John Collins

4:15 pm UPDATE……….

The approaching squall line “deflated” in a manner of speaking as it approached the metro area. The line of rain became more diffused and produced a period of moderate shower activity generating a quarter to half inch rainfall in one hour as estimated by National Weather Service radar. Parts of northern Virginia received up to one inch of rain before the squall line weakened. See the image below.

The rainfall will continue across the area past sunset with the leading edge moving to the east and southeast.

John Collins

3:15pm UPDATE………..

A squall line is approaching the Baltimore metro area as of 3:15pm. Strong gusts and briefly heavy rain likely with passage. On the surface analysis below, note the temperature fall on the station reports to the west. Click on the image to enlarge it for detail.

John Collins

Previous entry…….

It happens, but not that often. At midday, temperatures around Baltimore are in the upper 60s. Readings are running 10-15 degrees cooler near the Bay with wind coming off the cold water temperatures.

Wednesday’s record high is 72 (1914) and by noon the BWI temperature was 4 degrees short of the mark.

At midday a squall line had developed in western Maryland. It is evident in the visible satellite image as bumpy clouds.

The 10 AM surface analysis shows a complex system of fronts affecting Mid Atlantic weather. A strong southerly flow of air ahead of the initial cold front is responsible for the unseasonably warm temperatures.

The complex system is also responsible for a very unstable air mass. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an area along the East Coast, including the Mid Atlantic Region, as having a slight risk for severe weather Wednesday.

Check with http://wbaltv.com/weather for updates through the rest of the day.

John Collins

Winter Has Arrived

Cold air has finally settled in. Winter is here!

No records have been broken so far and none are threatened.

Tuesday morning’s low was 15 degrees and the record low is -7.

Wednesday morning’s hourly low was 13 and the record is 0.

Thursday and Friday morning record lows are 1 and 0 respectively. The forecast lows for those two days are around 15 degrees warmer.

True winter weather includes snow and there is some in the forecast.

A weak clipper tonight could dust up the area with minor accumulations of a relatively dry snow.

The RPM forecast model above shows the scattered, light nature of the predicted snow for Thursday morning’s rush hour. Some fine tuning is possible so check back for updates. With the very cold temperatures, even a dry, light snow can cause slippery driving conditions.

Another system is expected Friday and Friday night. There will be a northern and southern component to this one. 

The GFS forecast model above shows the next system approaching midday Friday. The storm looks more impressive than what is expected although it could likely produce the greater amount of snow of this week’s systems. Nonetheless, the track of this storm will probably allow relatively light accumulations of dry snow across the area. There is also a possibility that the two components of the storm will concentrate any snow to the north and south of the Baltimore area.

The upshot, Friday’s snow forecast will need some fine tuning so watch for updates on http://wbaltv.com/weather

John Collins